For x days, x * (500k * phase multiplier + phase daily cost) - https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/how-much-does-a-day-of-delay-in-a-clinical-trial-really-cost-
- P[drug gets to market] * E[daily sales lost] + E[daily cost of running] = E[saved day]
- First probability changes by stage - https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136
- Phase 1: 63%, phase 2: 31%, phase 3: 58%, FDA approval: 85%
- P[market | phase 1] = 9.6%
- P[market | phase 2] = 15.3%
- P[market | phase 3] = 49.3%
- E[phase 1 saved day] = 9.6% * $500,000 + $7,800 = $55,800
- E[phase 2 saved day] = 15.3% * $500,000 + $23,700 = $100,200
- E[phase 3 saved day] = 49.3% * $500,000 + $55,700 = $302,200